SCENARIOS FOR THE BUILDING INDUSTRY

Strategy is always determined in the context of scenarios, or alternative memories of the future. Considering the scenario options for the Building Industry in South Africa, the Strategic Forum agreed that the key Driving Forces of change (with the most potential impact) in the evolution of the Building Industry are:

• the trends in Investment (from Property a poor investment to a preferred investment);
• the trends in Investor Confidence (from no confidence and risk avoidance, to high confidence and risk taking); and
• the trends in Property Delivery (by all the leading Investing Stakeholders).

The scenario matrix has four end-states, which translates into a three-dimensional scenario space, with scenario pathways linking the four end-states dynamically, to create developmental (process) scenarios.

Investment trends in building are inextricably linked to general political and economic conditions, and in particular INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, which determines the willingness to take risks, resulting in positive INVESTMENT TRENDS with Property regarded as a preferred Investment. Buoyant growth in building will be the consequence of high PROPERTY DELIVERY by all leading Stakeholders, in response to the trends in the aforementioned driving forces.